Key Elon risk

Sometimes, when not enough people have been yelling at me, I like to write about Elon Musk

Today's newsletter is about Elon Musk, but before I get into it, can I ask you three quick questions?

1. Can you name the CEO of General Motors?

2. Who is the CEO of Toyota? How about Ford Motor Company?

3. Do you know the CEO of Stellantis? Or, Hyundai, Honda, or Volkswagen? Can you name any of them?

Now, let me ask you: Who is the CEO of Tesla, and how do you feel about him?

With the likely exception of President Trump, it’s hard to imagine a more polarizing figure in America than Musk right now. Almost everybody knows who he is, and almost everyone has an opinion.

Even before The Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla's board had started a search for a replacement CEO, and of course before both Musk and Tesla vehemently denied that a search was ongoing, and even before Tesla reported some very disappointing earnings last month, it’s been clear that no matter how good Tesla’s cars might be, or how intriguing its plans for the future are, Musk himself either attracts customers or drives them away.

Examples:

A January survey suggested that almost 60 percent of electric vehicle owners and potential buyers say they’d be less likely to buy a Tesla because Musk is Tesla’s CEO. A February poll from Morning Consult found that 46 percent of Americans disapprove of Musk’s work with the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency.

And, a more recent poll a few weeks ago shows half of all Americans have negative views of Musk, while 47 percent have negative views of Tesla.

Nevertheless, Musk has tripled down on the idea that opposition to him personally and Tesla is driven by corrupt bad actors who only oppose him because they oppose his government work with “DOGE.”

“The protests that you see out there are very organized,” he said on an earnings call a few weeks ago. “They’re paid for. They’re obviously not going to admit that the reason they’re protesting is because they’re receiving fraudulent money. … But that’s the reason for the protests.”

Look, here’s the brutal two-part truth:

• Tesla is a very intriguing company, and it almost certainly would not have become what it is without Musk as its leader.

• At the same time, Tesla now faces massive, unique challenges precisely because of Musk, since he spends so much time on other activities and attracts so much attention and emotion.

It almost doesn’t matter whether Musk is correct when he says that opposition to Tesla is driven by some kind of nefarious motivation from his work at DOGE; the opposition is there, and it’s hard to imagine how it dissipates as long as Musk is still involved with both efforts.

In fairness, Musk’s approval ratings began to fall well before he worked in the government, after he bought and renamed X, and then reportedly spent well over $250 million to get Trump elected last year.

It’s such an obvious juxtaposition when you consider Tesla’s competition in the auto industry.

Seriously, is anyone in the world buying or not buying a GM car because they like or dislike CEO Mary Barra? Or contemplating a Toyota based on their feelings about chief executive Koji Sato?

Also: Jim Farley at Ford, John Elkann on an interim basis at Stellantis, José Muñoz at Hyundai, Toshihiro Mibe at Honda, and Oliver Blume at Volkswagen.

If you’re really into the automotive industry, you might have known some or even all of those names. But most people won't.

I mean, nobody is recording videos of World War II veterans in Sherman tanks crushing Rivians. (See video below.)

In that regard, Tesla is unique.

There's a concept in business known as "key person risk."

Usually, it refers to the potential that a key corporate leader might no longer be able to perform his or her leadership duties, not that he or she might become so polarizing and even toxic (at least in some customers’ eyes) that their continued presence creates a challenge for the company.

Yet that’s clearly the case for Tesla now. Even for potential customers who don’t have strong feelings, there’s an element of maybe not wanting to drive a Tesla, so you don’t feel like you’re making a political statement every time you go to the supermarket.

It’s worth pointing out that Tesla’s plans, as articulated by Musk, are extraordinarily ambitious — even exciting, if they ever come to fruition.

In fact, Musk keeps insisting that the company’s value should have little to do with its current vehicle production.

Instead, he maintains that Tesla should have a “staggering” value based on “large scale [production of] autonomous cars … and large scale, in large volume, vast numbers, of autonomous humanoid robots.”

Seriously, who else is talking about that?

He went on during the recent earnings call:

“I think Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world by far. It may be as valuable as the next five companies combined. But there’ll be a few bumps in the long road before that happens.”

I’ve long since given up trying to predict Musk’s future — or Trump’s for that matter. They’re both full of surprises. But, Tesla and the people who love it don’t have that luxury.

So, ask yourself: How do you feel about Musk?

There could be a lot riding on the answer.

---

7 other things worth knowing today

• This was a few days ago now, but: President Trump announced his plan for a 100% tariff on all movies “produced in Foreign Lands”, saying the U.S. film industry was dying a “very fast death” due to the incentives that other countries were offering to draw American film-makers. (The Guardian)

• About 764,000 wallets that purchased President Trump’s $TRUMP meme coin have lost money on the investment, according to fresh data shared with CNBC by blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis. While around 2 million wallets have bought into the token, 58 wallets made more than $10 million apiece, totaling roughly $1.1 billion in gains. Interest in the coin spiked more than 50% after the project’s website promised the top 220 holders a seat at a black-tie-optional dinner with the president. (CNBC)

• The European Union is set to impose sweeping Anti-Money Laundering (AML) rules that will ban privacy-preserving tokens and anonymous cryptocurrency accounts starting in 2027. Credit institutions, financial institutions and crypto asset service providers (CASPs) will be prohibited from maintaining anonymous accounts or handling privacy-preserving cryptocurrencies. (CoinTelegraph)

• What happens when someone comes close to death and then returns to everyday life, including work? For some, the experience can be transformative. One new recent study found that surviving a near death experience challenges conventional ideas about success, motivation and workplace culture. One of the most common changes: a desire to do work that felt meaningful and aligned with their newfound purpose in life. (AOL News)

• Pete Hegseth has attempted to reframe the role of defense secretary, casting himself as "one of the guys" and posting videos and photos of himself working out with troops. But the carefully curated image has made the former Fox News host and National Guardsman a regular target of satire from rank and file military members. (Military)

• Taking the bite out of Lyme disease: New studies offer insight into the disease’s treatment and lingering symptoms. (Northwestern)

• On the death of daydreaming: Can you remember the last time you daydreamed? Before the era of mobile technology, most of us had no choice but to wait without stimulation, and often, that meant being bored. But today we have an indefatigable boredom-killing machine: the smartphone. No matter how brief our wait, the smartphone promises an alleviation for our suffering. (AfterBabel)

---

Thanks for reading. Photo by Vlad Tchompalov on Unsplash. I wrote about some of this before at Inc.com. See you in the comments.