Pure dumb luck

Understandably and Big Optimism: Coexisting, and hopefully even thriving together.

Jul 11, 2024

A while back, I wrote a book about Harvard Business School. Maybe some of you know it?

In the weeks before it came out, the publisher sent me a draft of some marketing materials. I wasn't thrilled with what they’d come up with, and it came down to two short words.

It said something like: "Murphy wrote this book after he stumbled upon a fascinating statistic about Harvard ..." (emphasis added)

But, I didn't think I'd "stumbled upon" anything!

I discovered that statistic (about rates of MBA students starting businesses instead of taking jobs at big companies) — and a lot of other interesting things — only after lots of research, resourcefulness, and diligence.

"Stumbled upon" suggested my success had been pure dumb luck. I was hurt.

Was this what they thought of me? Did my hard work mean nothing? Was there no fairness at all in the publishing world?

But then we had a meeting, and the publishing people took out the line in less time than it took me to write this sentence. In fact, they said they had only included it because they were paraphrasing what I had said in a previous meeting.

Sure enough, they had notes. And even though I hadn’t realized it, I’d used all kinds of words and phrases like "serendipity," "good fortune" and even "stumbled upon" to describe my writing experience.

Whoops.

Thankfully, there was a happy ending. The book sold quite well. I even won an "Audie" award, for the best business/educational audiobook that year.

And, I thought about the episode afterward. (I am a charter resident of Overthinking Island.):

When people asked about my work, it seemed, I was happy to attribute at least some of my success to luck.
But when someone else downplayed my hard work and used almost the exact same language, I reacted very differently.

Then, I forgot about the whole thing for more than a decade, until I read a column by Stephanie Mehta, who is the CEO of Mansueto Ventures, which in turn publishes Inc. Magazine.

She talked about an interview she’d done onstage with the CEO of Expedia Group, Ariane Gorin. After Gorin revealed that other people had identified her as "CEO material" before she thought about it herself, Mehta said, she nearly blurted out: "So you're an accidental CEO!"

She caught herself, and thought about why — basically for a reason similar to my objection to “stumbled upon.” As she put it:

"The term "accidental CEO" is a shorthand way to describe an executive who has taken an unlikely path to the corner office. ...
But the phrase is disproportionately applied to women--and often it is the CEO herself who embraces it. ... I now think it is time to retire the trope.”

In fact, Mehta wrote, she realized that she had referred to herself as an “accidental CEO” when she first got the job at Mansueto Ventures.

"Self-described accidental CEOs may not intend it,” she said, “but we can come across like we're apologizing for or tempering our professional successes ...”

Here's where I land:

First, I think successful people, especially good leaders, are sometimes inclined to attribute their success to luck when asked. That’s because it’s a sign of humility (a key leadership trait), but also because they just don’t want to brag.
Second, these same people avoid mentioning luck regarding other people's accomplishments, because they don't want to diminish what the other person has achieved. Again: good leadership.
But third, there's a plot twist! A good leader might think highly of another person, and assume that if asked, that person would credit at least part of their success to luck. But, they can find themselves almost "agreeing in advance," before the other person has actually said so.

Frankly, all three behavioral insights are the result of trying to put yourself in the shoes of another person, and to experience things through their emotions. That's a good thing in general, but maybe the lesson here is that sometimes we're better off simply saying what we truly think.

So, yes: I worked very hard on that book, but I also benefited from pure dumb luck. And most CEOs probably benefited from some degree of luck as they ascended to their positions.

At the same time, the harder some people work, the luckier they seem to get. You don't need to go to Harvard Business School to learn that.

A little update

As many of you already know, I’ve been thinking hard about how to keep writing both Understandably and my other newsletter, Big Optimism.

In the end, I’m going to try the simplest possible solution: I’m going to write them both, but alternating back and forth. Between the two newsletters, there should be an option to receive one email each morning if you’re interested.

People who like Big Optimism (which is free and ad-supported) can subscribe to that newsletter.
People who like Understandably (which is reader-supported and has both free and premium tiers) can subscribe to this one, which you’re reading right now.
Of course, you can also subscribe to both, if you like. No pressure!

(Important: If you want to unsubscribe, please just scroll down to the bottom of this email and find the unsubscribe link. I wish I could make it more prominent!)

I’ll have more to say as we go along. But for now, thanks for being here and for your continued support. It’s hard to describe just how grateful I am that you choose to subscribe and read what I write!

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Longevity has officially become a competitive sport. In the “Rejuvenation Olympics,” founded by tech entrepreneur and longevity bro Bryan Johnson, anti-agers take their health obsession to new levels. Just not dying isn’t enough. Instead, you have to not-die better than your competitor. (WSJ)
A 21-year-old Georgia college student has become the youngest female mayor to take office in American history. Brooke Huckaby, a student at Abraham Baldwin Agricultural College, was elected Republican mayor of Arabi, Georgia, located 150 miles south of Atlanta. She's the daughter of the former mayor. (Daily Mail)
As the temperature in California's Death Valley National Park skyrocketed, a group of motorcyclists traveling found themselves in trouble. But as the heat reached a record 128 degrees on Saturday, emergency medical helicopters were unable to respond to the scene because they can't safely fly in temperatures above 120 degrees, according to the National Park Service. One rider died of heat exposure; another had to be hospitalized in Las Vegas for severe heat illness. (USA Today)
Intuit says it will lay off 1,800 global employees, which is about 10% of its workforce. But leadership says the move isn’t to cut costs. Instead, it's apparently to make room for 1,800 new employees as part of the company's shift to focus on artificial intelligence. So, if you know any young people wondering what to study, maybe this is a clue. (Fortune)
Girls in Tech, a worldwide nonprofit aimed at boosting women in technology, is shutting down. In an email Monday, founder and CEO Adriana Gascoigne said “Girls in Tech will be closing its doors due to a lack of funding in 2023 and 2024.” The news follows a June announcement that the nonprofit was facing imminent closure if it did not raise $100,000. (Business Journal)
It seems like there are a lot more sharks at the beach on the Atlantic Coast, although shark attacks are incredibly rare. But if do you spot one in the water, here's what to do: Stay calm and move away. If you're attacked, fight back. "At the point at which you're in an animal's mouth, I would go for those sensitive spots — eyes, gills — that are going to make it regret having you in its mouth," says a shark expert. "But I want to always caveat that with: Until you're in its mouth, keep your hands to yourself." (NPR)

Understandably by Bill Murphy Jr.

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