Things will never be the same
A quick aside. Also, you get $1,000, and you get $1,000, and you get $1,000! Plus your kids just might be off school for the rest of the year. And 7 other things worth your time.
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The incredible news keeps coming. Yesterday brought a shocking turn — something people were half-expecting, sure, but that they largely didn’t admit would never actually come to pass.
I’m talking of course, about the news that future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady will not be returning to the New England Patriots, after 20 years with the NFL team.
Things will never be the same: well, at least if you care about the NFL, or maybe more specifically if you’re a New England fan. (Later reports say Brady is likely signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.)
A month ago this would have been the lead story everywhere—perhaps the biggest free agency story in sports history. And, I’m happy to be able to start today’s email with something other than the coronavirus.
But we must move on quickly, as yesterday this news had to compete with things like:
A radical shift in political sentiment in the U.S. that would have been hard to predict even a week ago. Both the White House and members of Congress of both parties are proposing payments of $1,000 or more, potentially to every single American, as a way to shore up the economy. (Andrew Yang, who campaigned for president on the idea of universal basic income, says his phone is blowing up.)
The stock market rebounding somewhat, after the worst day Monday since Black Monday in 1987.
The European Union locking down its borders for 30 days, preventing most non-EU citizens from entering.
Officials in nearly every state predicting that schools are likely to be closed for the rest of the year, full stop (Wash Post $). (Kansas made it official.)
President Trump declaring: “The world is at war with a hidden enemy.”
Not everywhere, though. If you were hunkering down, practicing social distance, and sacrificing for your fellow humans, here’s how some other people spent the day.
A few readers suggested, after I made yesterday’s email all about this dichotomy, that the difference between the people who are hunkering down and those who are partying on might be as much a generational divide as anything.
The Wall Street Journal ($) backed you up afterward. True, I probably would have done the same thing in my early 20s.
Heck, when I think back to college spring break in Panama City Beach, Florida, the idea of spending the day on the beach during a pandemic probably would only have been about the 73rd-most-risky thing we did on any particular day.
I’m not going to describe it all in this newsletter since my parents read it—no need to freak them out two decades later—but you know where I’m coming from.
It’s funny—I was talking with my sister the other day and remarked that I felt like I’ve grown up a lot in the last few years. It might be about time, some might say, since I’ll be closing out my 40s sooner than I’d like to admit.
But that’s what’s happening. And we’re all seeing change much faster now than we would have imagined just a few short weeks ago.
For those waiting, the next edition of Working From Home will be tomorrow. Murphy’s Law governed the launch, as I’ll explain then. Hopefully all the technical issues will be all sorted out, however, and we’ll be good to go.
7 other things worth your time
In Connecticut, unemployment insurance claims went up 10x in less than one week. And while this is obviously a worst-case scenario, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned unemployment could reach 20 percent if Congress doesn’t mass a stimulus bill fast. During the Great Depression, it maxed out at 24.9 percent. (Hartford Courant and New York Post)
Nearly 15,000 people who attended a dental conference in Vancouver are being asked to self-quarantine, after “multiple cases of coronavirus have been traced to the event.” (CBC)
The head of the federal personnel office abruptly quit during coronavirus planning for the government workforce of 2.1 million. Reports say she felt micromanaged and disrespected by White House officials. (The Washington Post, $)
Amazon is banning its warehouses from stocking nonessential items until April 5, during the coronavirus pandemic. This doesn’t mean you can’t order things as long as they’re in stock; it’s more about the Fulfilled by Amazon program, but it’s still a milestone.. (Vox)
What will ESPN do with no sports? They’re panning, “archival content and/or themed and stunt event programming.” (CNBC)
The U.S. Navy is sending two of its hospital ships, the USNS Comfort and USNS Mercy, to the east and west coasts to serve as backups for civilian hospitals, anticipating a shortage of beds soon. (USNI)
Henry Blodget penned an open letter to airlines that want a massive $54 billion bailout. Short version: a loan, not a bailout, and it can’t be used for stock buybacks. (Business Insider)
One little bonus item: Congratulations to my former colleagues at Some Spider Studios (soon to be renamed Some Spider Family) on their acquisition of the parenting brand Fatherly. The fact that they pulled this deal together during the last week’s craziness is remarkable. (Digiday)
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Hi Mr. Murphy, I am a career progression coach, and I'd like to point out a fact that few people know - not sure where your knowledge lies on this spectrum.
Either way, I just posted this yesterday on my blog, at <eCareerCoaching.com>.
-Don Oehlert
Sr. Managing Partner
don@eCareerCoaching.com
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"Actual unemployment/underemployment numbers differ significantly from published data"
By: Don Oehlert, Sr. Managing Partner; <eCareerCoaching.com>
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) compiles a count of those Americans that are employed, unemployed and underemployed.They have been doing this since the inception of the WPA in 1940. The results of every survey can be found on their website, which is <bls.gov>.
The differences between “counted and announced unemployed” are significantly different from those actually unemployed or underemployed.
There is a significant portion of the American labor force that is “underemployed” at this moment in time (even before the COVID-19 outbreak).
In other words, there are a lot of people that are working for less money than they’ve made in the past, or what their educational and experience level would indicate that they should normally earn at their full-time jobs.
The term “underemployed” also means that there is a large portion of the working population that is working 2 and 3 part-time jobs, and therefore have no benefits, nor do they have financial security.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (the BLS) actually tracks these levels of employment, unemployment, underemployment, and so on using a 6-level charting system. They are called U1-U6.
U-1 Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force
U-2 Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force
U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate)
U-4 Total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers (Editor’s note: discouraged workers have lost their drive to find a new job, due to the amount of time that has passed since their last full-time posting)
U-5 Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other persons marginally attached to the labor force, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force
U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force. (Editor’s note: THIS IS THE ACTUAL NUMBER OF WORKING-AGE PEOPLE IN THE US THAT ARE ACTUALLY UNEMPLOYED. This number is usually about 2-3 x the U3 figure that is often quoted in the press)
NOTE: Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.
SOURCE: Current Population Survey
As you navigate your day, you should keep these numbers in mind, as this is the actual snapshot of the number of people that are out of work for any number of reasons. In other words, you can draw from this that, during the Great Recession of 2007-2009, the actual figure of unemployed and underemployed was closer to 20-25% of working-age adults in the US population. If you recall US History, then you can see that the Great Recession actually had a similar number of people unemployed as the US did after the 1929 Crash and Great Depression.
While we avoid political leanings or statements of any sort on our blogs and in our posts, we do believe that you should see the actual numbers of your neighbors that are suffering, regardless of what is reported in the press. Now you have the actual data, rather than just the headline.
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No buyouts to banks and corporations! Banks should forgive all student loans then and only then will the US Govt allow a loan but NO BUYOUTS. Also their CEO'S SHOULD BE REQUIRED TO REDUCE SALARIES!!
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