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dj l's avatar

long post. I love it... copy from libertarian read I get: (& have to post & run, this is my volunteer day...)

J.D. Tuccille / Reason “Could this be the best Government Shutdown Ever?”Here we go again. We've seen this before as Democrats and Republicans play chicken over their clashing funding priorities, with a partial suspension of federal activities threatened if they can't come to a deal.

Unfortunately, the government never really shuts down, and the two parties always work out an agreement that involves spending a lot more money. The worst that happens is that some people are inconvenienced for a few days, as the only things that really cease to function are public-facing operations such as parks and offices—deliberately so, to maintain the illusion that something important is happening. What might be different this time, though, is that there's a chance to use the impasse to reduce the federal work force.

The latest clash over passing a funding bill for the federal government is Democrats' insistence that the legislation include extensions for Obamacare subsidies to address a problem that, as Paige Winfield Cunningham noted for The Washington Post, "even supporters of the Affordable Care Act fight admit is a flaw in the original law: It wasn't generous enough to make plans affordable." Having built much of their eroding reputation on the cobbled-together public-private health care coverage scheme, Democrats need to prop it up with more taxpayer money to keep it functioning.

Republicans aren't especially interested in keeping the flagship Democratic legislation afloat. That doesn't mean they're necessarily thriftier. Having largely abandoned their small-government credentials (with a few notable exceptions), the GOP wants to spend too much money—though less than the Democrats—on its own projects. Those projects place special emphasis on defense and the Department of Homeland Security, with trillions of dollars in projected deficits for the foreseeable future.

Republicans hold a majority, but Democratic votes are needed to move funding bills in the Senate. So far, Democrats have refused to budge in what The Wall Street Journal described as "a stark turnaround for a party that often lambasted Republicans as irresponsible for threatening shutdowns in the past."

About Those Phony 'Government Shutdowns'

That means we get a kabuki-theater government shutdown. Museums and national parks will close and federal offices will furlough workers who will be unavailable to give their usual bad tax advice or slowly process forms while most of the non-public-facing work continues behind the scenes.

"The vast majority of the federal government is still in operation, shutdown or no shutdown," attorney Timothy Snowball commented for the Pacific Legal Foundation in 2019. "Even among the 8% of the federal budget that is not currently funded because of the shutdown, only 'non-essential' programs and employees are affected. For 'essential' employees it is business as usual."

Federal employees are, overall, better-compensated than their private sector counterparts. According to a 2024 Congressional Budget Office analysis, "The federal government would have decreased its spending on total compensation by 5 percent if it had adjusted the cost of pay for its employees to match the compensation of their private-sector counterparts." Even so, federal workers will inevitably cry poverty for interviewers while they're furloughed and not drawing pay—even though they'll automatically get all back pay once the shutdown concludes.

At most, a government shutdown is usually just a new excuse for politicians to posture in front of television cameras. This time, though, there's a chance the federal work force might come out the other end of the shutdown a little smaller.

This Time Could Be Different (The following is what I hope happens, but I haven’t seen much of this written about...)

"The White House is telling federal agencies to prepare large-scale firings of workers if the government shuts down next week in a partisan fight over spending plans," The Guardian reported last week. "In a memo released on Wednesday night, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) said agencies should consider a reduction in force for federal programs whose funding would lapse next week, is not otherwise funded and is 'not consistent with the president's priorities.'"

The mentioned OMB memo points out that "with respect to those Federal programs whose funding would lapse and which are otherwise unfunded, such programs are no longer statutorily required to be carried out." It continues: "Therefore, consistent with applicable law, including the requirements of 5 C.F.R. part 351, agencies are directed to use this opportunity to consider Reduction in Force (RIF) notices for all employees in programs, projects, or activities (PPAs) that satisfy all three of the following conditions: (1) discretionary funding lapses on October 1, 2025; (2) another source of funding, such as H.R. 1 (Public Law 119-21) is not currently available; and (3) the PPA is not consistent with the President's priorities."

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SPW's avatar

Sounds to me like you’ve never had to work through one. They’re a right pain in the tail. My X-Ray department at the VA were essential as were other patient care providers. This was during that bastard, Gingrich’s “leadership”. Thankfully I wasn’t a single income earner responsible for a family but several were. You really should try it one time when you have bills to pay but no money coming in until some damn bunch of politicians trying to score brownie points with some big money muck it’s-mucks, decides they’ve squeezed enough blood from their poor constituents and relents. I was never so glad to see one man get his butt unelected as I was Newt. Same goes for this bunch of lying grifters as well.

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dj l's avatar

the private sector can employ people. Meanwhile (I'll summarize the following here, but please pay attention for future generations, not just you: If interest payments on the national debt continue to grow, the U.S. government will face a constrained budget, forcing it to spend more on interest instead of other priorities like infrastructure, education, or defense. This will also reduce the money available for private investment, slowing economic growth and potentially increasing interest rates further, creating a cycle of higher debt and interest costs that can undermine economic stability and public confidence. AND, BY THE WAY, UNLIKE YOU, I'M POINTING FINGERS AT BOTH SIDES!!!!!!!)

Total Gross Debt: ~$37.43 trillion

Debt Held by the Public: ~$30.12 trillion

Intragovernmental Debt: ~$7.31 trillion

The interest paid by the U.S. government on its national debt is a large and rapidly growing expense, projected to reach $952 billion in fiscal year 2025 and $1.8 trillion in 2035. This significant cost is driven by a combination of high levels of national debt and increased interest rates, making interest payments the fastest-growing portion of the federal budget. In fiscal year 2024, these net interest costs totaled $882 billion, more than spending on Medicare or national defense, and were the second-largest federal expenditure after Social Security

Impact of Interest Costs

Budget Squeeze: As interest costs grow, they take a larger share of federal revenues and overall spending, potentially limiting resources for other programs.

Growing Expense: Interest on the debt has become the second-largest expenditure category in the federal budget, exceeding spending on Medicare and national defense in 2024.

Future Projections: Projections show this trend continuing, with net interest costs expected to total $13.8 trillion over the next decade (FY 2026-2035).

FY 2024: Net interest costs were $882 billion.

FY 2025: Net interest costs are projected to be $952 billion.

FY 2035: Projected net interest costs are expected to be nearly $1.8 trillion.

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Darrell's avatar

Today’s column reminded me of Dumb and Dumber when Jim Carey imitated the sound of a fax machine connecting. My first PC I used with AOL had an 8 MB hard drive while my iPhone 16 Pro has 8 GB of RAM.

Sad to see that so many people could get priced out of health care coverage because of a loss of subsidies. Meanwhile, Golf365 stated that Trump’s golf trips have cost American taxpayers more than $70 million since resuming the presidency this year. Considering Air Force One runs at approximately $265,000 per hour, the Ryder Cup visit could elevate to $16 million when factoring in security.

Two men wearing more makeup than their wives went on stage and lectured 800+ generals how to be “real men.”

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Paula S's avatar

Wow! That certainly brought back memories. One thing I remember most is after waiting and listening to that lovely AOL sound while it was connecting, (after about 5 minutes) it finally connected and said those greatly anticipated words "You've Got Mail", I was ecstatic that I was connected to the internet after only 5 minutes!!! Today, waiting more than 5 seconds means the site is not uploading efficiently. It certainly makes me appreciate the speed we have today.

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Ray's avatar

A couple interesting tidbits Bill, I have a house in Bristol Rhode Island that I bought 4 years ago and I love the fact that at high tide the state grows by about a third. As far as AOL goes, I was in the same class as Steve Case who started AOL and was the gut who made all that money n the merger. We all used to tease him because he spent so much time in the computer lab, but it looks like the jokes on us!

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SPW's avatar

I think we got online at the house after we got an internet provider in town so while I definitely remember and loved the movie, I’m not sure we ever had to hear the “You’ve got mail” thing.

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