The 0.75% rate hike begs the question; Why didn't the Fed take less drastic steps earlier rather than wait until it was necessary to increase the rate by 75 basis points? Wasn't this foreseeable? It gives the impression that the Fed members suddenly looked up at their TV screens one evening and said "holy crap, we have to do something!" Now the markets sense the urgency and are reacting accordingly which means we all suffer on multiple levels.
While I appreciate your position I think it is an oversimplification.
I don’t know about you, but it seems to me the weather forecasters are constantly changing their forecast, much more than, say, 20-30 years ago. Perhaps that due to chaotic weather patterns or it could be the availability of so many predictive models with too many potential outcomes and choices. In some ways, this is happening with monetary policy.
If you look back you will see “Something” fairly significant impacts our economy every ten years or so. The steps the fed implements take time relative to the significance of the “something” that has happened. The dot com bubble barely had time to recover before the housing bubble hit - a quite significant event.
The tools used to mitigate the housing bubble had to be more extreme but over time they worked. At the same time, the global economy was becoming more a way of life. Monetary policy continued to be effective until Covid upended everything. The tools implemented in 2010 had nothing on what was needed in 2020.
Everything we knew about managing a global economy came crashing down. There were no economic models to rely on. Everyone had an opinion. Everyone was hoarding toilet paper. Manufacturing halted and the global supply chain was disrupted. So many people died in the US that the statistical life expectancy dropped by a couple of years.
Oh, and let’s not forget Putin’s war in Ukraine just to keep things interesting. All of this happening at the same time as part of a global economy.
There was no history to rely on to help as the last similar event happened 100 years ago in a different time and at the end of WWI with no global economy. Even Janet Yellen, who served as chair of the Fed from ‘14-‘18, acknowledged they all missed the signals, probably because they were signals that never previously existed.
To get back to where I began, All that crap I just said is an oversimplification. The US economy, which is part of the global economy, is insanely complicated. I’m not sure anyone alive can make the ideal calls and just have to intelligently attempt to do the right things and be willing to make adjustments along the way. Until we hit the next ten year event!
It’s an unfortunate assumption that it’s “better than the alternative…” and explains much of the rise in healthcare costs in America over the last 20-30 years… not sure if stat is still true, but it used to be that 90% of healthcare costs incurred over the last 90 days of a patients life… because essentially, we can keep someone alive almost indefinitely… “better than the alternative” implies we SHOULD… but for anyone who’s sat on a death bed watch, or watched a loved one spend weeks or months, kept alive by machines with virtually zero quality of life, they know the fallacy of this assumption… as healthcare continues to “improve” and we are able to keep individuals alive with multimorbidities for longer and longer with increasingly deteriorating quality of life, at some point we must address this frantic desire to live “one more day” at any cost…
Nicely said. My “one more day” begins with how I live today; how I eat today; how I move today; how I manage stress today. I want quality of life rather than length of life. Im 65 and don’t yet need medications.
“The single count of attempting to kill a U.S. judge added new details about what authorities say Nicholas Roske, 26, had with him when he arrived via taxi cab to the conservative justice’s home just after 1 a.m. in Chevy Chase, Md., last week.“
THANKY THANKY THANKY for all your kindnesses ❤❣💕💞 Perhaps now I can start my adult life. Nah, Iyam having too much fun. Why ruin a great childhood now!
First off, I’m freaky claustrophobic and in the last few days I’ve read headlines about double decker airline seats. Just Reading about this kicked in my phobia big time I’ve experienced first hand anxiety attacks in Business class seats to Europe So I can’t be the only one and airlines may want to research a little more
Nine chronic conditions? Here's your tenth: Pain. Chronic pain affects most of that list of nine to a degree that unless you're actively dealing with pain daily, you're just not going to understand anything about it at all.
Pain wears you down like nothing I've ever seen. It makes you incredibly uncomfortable, sad, and miserable. Every morning is sheer agony for me to just make it out of bed and get to my meds to start the day. Pain level? Nine. No lie. I wouldn't wish this on my worst enemy. That bad.
Why are so many of us suffering from items on this list? Easy. It's cheaper to wear us out, and then pay us a crappy "wage" to sit at home, than to accommodate us on the job to prevent the injuries in the first place. Sad but true. We're just an expendable line item cost to a company.
Must be a tough life. A chronic anything is tough. Not that this applies to you, but I do everything I can to avoid chronic conditions because once you have one it is difficult to kick without another issue cropping up as a side effect.
It just occurred to me that pain is the result of a chronic condition, not in and of itself a chronic condition; Otherwise, the list would be much longer.
Not so. Mine comes from two lower back surgeries that catastrophically failed. The original surgery was ten years old, the second was five. The hardware used in the second surgery, (That I didn't want.) failed under a stress that should not have broken it. The stress followed through the holes drilled to insert the screw and fractured the fusion that had nothing wrong with it. A comedy of errors. Shouldn't have happened. But it did.
I believe the original quote may have been 'that which dost not destroy me makes me stronger, or something like that....I've had a couple or two 'events' which have destroyed me, but I continued with the same strength I had before....I have a feisty friend who says, 'who the hell needs to be That strong!' ;)
"Chinese interpreter?" Say what? Uhh, that is a huge No-no. When you have a Commercial Drivers License you're not supposed to need an interpreter at all. Ever.
Huh? Are you sure? The rules say nothing about communicating through an interpreter.
“The knowledge tests may be administered in written form, verbally, or in automated format and can be administered in a foreign language, provided no interpreter is used in administering the test.”
The knowledge test can be. The ROAD test cannot. You have to understand English to have a CDL in the US. That's what The Great State of Florida told me when CDL's came into existence, (Yes, I am that old, lol.) for me and my guys. And South Carolina said the same back in 2002. I haven't heard of it being changed in either state.
I'm not sure people in cars would be any kind of happy if they knew there was a good chance the driver of the truck or bus in the next lane couldn't read the road signs. Even the guys from India that haul garbage from NJ to PA can do that. They can't do much else, but they can read road signs.
I managed trucking in one form or another for nearly 40 years so I used to be up in things. The article references talking to media through an interpreter, not taking a driving test where one can get by with a more limited vocabulary.
I think he's talking to the court via an interpreter. Even if a person appears to understand well enough, in my experience courts are eager to offer an interpreter - if only to avoid a possible appellate issue later.
I’m in my early 50s diagnosed with Cancer , went through hell with the chemo treatment, and got remission. No they tell me either do a bone marrow transplant with its risks specially with no good match and probably another 6-12 month of hell for a chance to be clear and life to expected age, or do nothing, and cancer will come back more aggressively, in 2 month or in 5 years, but no control after.
I’m in the dilemma 0f choosing pain now and risk, or pain later and risk.
I choose the alternative !
Apologies for the dark reply, but getting old too fast too soon is not fun, living for just living is also not fun. I ask my self why we look for a longer life, when we achieved what we persuaded in life. I fear the next chapter will be pain for me and for the people around me.
Sammy, I'm 94, a survivor of prostate cancer (30 years ago) and have multiple challenges I face every day (at last count, about 40, some mild, others serious), including multiple side unhappy effects of my cancer treatment. It seems to me you are saying you have no reason for staying alive. I respect that. But are you sure the alternative is better? I encourage you to find reasons to live. Family? Children? A career you enjoy? Good friends? Have you bothered to ask others what effect your life has contributed to their happiness? You may be pleasantly surprised. Please give life a chance, even if you hate it. Stop thinking you're living just for living and find out if you're right.
Thank you for the encouraging message and for the hope. For clarification, I don’t hate life, but when I’m no more able to contribute, help others in general, family and friends in particular, live in constant pain, then the alternative becomes acceptable. By no mean, I’ll act on it, our souls were given to us by God, and should only return to him when the time comes. Just came to mind this quote: “ everyone wants to go to heaven, but no one wants to die”.
So, from that perspective, is this, better than the alternative!
Fascinating research included today, and it particularly resonated with me. My great-grandfather celebrated his 99th birthday in January. He is a prostate cancer survivor and his most pressing ailments at the moment are asthma and a cane he's started using in the past 3 years so. He only turned in his driver's license some 5 years ago.
His six children range in ages from their late 70s to early 60s, and none of them have any chronic illnesses. All still drive and are very independent, with only one of them not having retired yet. It does not escape me that all this would have been a pipe dream 30 years ago, and that none of them would have enjoyed the same fate had they not moved from Ecuador to the US from the 1970s and onward. I'd like to think it's no coincidence that my grandmother is still healthy and active living in the US in her early 70s while my grandfather (her first husband) lived in Ecuador his whole life and died of a very aggressive cancer 16 years ago.
As for my great-grandfather, I'm convinced he'll stubbornly hold off until he becomes a great-great-grandfather. Just for sh*ts and giggles.
Today's article is why I'm a (free) subscriber. Well, the "free" part is an issue of finances, & yes, the dumb jokes are something I can live with; but anyhow . . . At age 70, taking 7 pills a day, going to specialists every 6 months or so, just now divorced after 33 years of marriage (& a buncha kids all launched out there), losing my balance, arthritic, not driving much because I fall asleep at the wheel . . . You know what? This is a lot better than the alternative. And I, too, laughed the first time I used the phrase, a lot of years ago.
Now, both sides of my family are long-lived -- things can happen, but on average even without modern meds I could expect to live well into my 80s. But at 70 I am in better shape than either of my grandfathers were at the same age. What I see for my future is a semi-retirement, working at things I love while doing other things I love, none of them overwhelming, until the big guy tells me I can't do it anymore. It really doesn't get better than that. My ex-wife, similar family circumstances, has a similar outlook, even though our different views finally led us to break up in order to pursue those separate visions. Even if I live no longer than my grandparents my mobility, my ability to continue doing things I love, is much better than the alternative. And I am very well aware, and very grateful, that I am among the most fortunate.
Bill, this is incredibly timely as I am dealing with my Mom’s issues of falls with a 93-year-old. We are living longer, and for me, that does not sum up necessarily to a good thing. Long and short, if I can be active, travel, be with kids and family and friends, then place me in the forest with a center Starbucks hot chocolate and turn the wolves loose! Longer is not always better!
The 0.75% rate hike begs the question; Why didn't the Fed take less drastic steps earlier rather than wait until it was necessary to increase the rate by 75 basis points? Wasn't this foreseeable? It gives the impression that the Fed members suddenly looked up at their TV screens one evening and said "holy crap, we have to do something!" Now the markets sense the urgency and are reacting accordingly which means we all suffer on multiple levels.
While I appreciate your position I think it is an oversimplification.
I don’t know about you, but it seems to me the weather forecasters are constantly changing their forecast, much more than, say, 20-30 years ago. Perhaps that due to chaotic weather patterns or it could be the availability of so many predictive models with too many potential outcomes and choices. In some ways, this is happening with monetary policy.
If you look back you will see “Something” fairly significant impacts our economy every ten years or so. The steps the fed implements take time relative to the significance of the “something” that has happened. The dot com bubble barely had time to recover before the housing bubble hit - a quite significant event.
The tools used to mitigate the housing bubble had to be more extreme but over time they worked. At the same time, the global economy was becoming more a way of life. Monetary policy continued to be effective until Covid upended everything. The tools implemented in 2010 had nothing on what was needed in 2020.
Everything we knew about managing a global economy came crashing down. There were no economic models to rely on. Everyone had an opinion. Everyone was hoarding toilet paper. Manufacturing halted and the global supply chain was disrupted. So many people died in the US that the statistical life expectancy dropped by a couple of years.
Oh, and let’s not forget Putin’s war in Ukraine just to keep things interesting. All of this happening at the same time as part of a global economy.
There was no history to rely on to help as the last similar event happened 100 years ago in a different time and at the end of WWI with no global economy. Even Janet Yellen, who served as chair of the Fed from ‘14-‘18, acknowledged they all missed the signals, probably because they were signals that never previously existed.
To get back to where I began, All that crap I just said is an oversimplification. The US economy, which is part of the global economy, is insanely complicated. I’m not sure anyone alive can make the ideal calls and just have to intelligently attempt to do the right things and be willing to make adjustments along the way. Until we hit the next ten year event!
It’s an unfortunate assumption that it’s “better than the alternative…” and explains much of the rise in healthcare costs in America over the last 20-30 years… not sure if stat is still true, but it used to be that 90% of healthcare costs incurred over the last 90 days of a patients life… because essentially, we can keep someone alive almost indefinitely… “better than the alternative” implies we SHOULD… but for anyone who’s sat on a death bed watch, or watched a loved one spend weeks or months, kept alive by machines with virtually zero quality of life, they know the fallacy of this assumption… as healthcare continues to “improve” and we are able to keep individuals alive with multimorbidities for longer and longer with increasingly deteriorating quality of life, at some point we must address this frantic desire to live “one more day” at any cost…
Nicely said. My “one more day” begins with how I live today; how I eat today; how I move today; how I manage stress today. I want quality of life rather than length of life. Im 65 and don’t yet need medications.
When did the California man attempt to murder judge Kavanaugh? First time I’m hearing about this.
Last week….
From a WaPo article:
“The single count of attempting to kill a U.S. judge added new details about what authorities say Nicholas Roske, 26, had with him when he arrived via taxi cab to the conservative justice’s home just after 1 a.m. in Chevy Chase, Md., last week.“
What page of the paper was that article on? I must have missed it.
THANKY THANKY THANKY for all your kindnesses ❤❣💕💞 Perhaps now I can start my adult life. Nah, Iyam having too much fun. Why ruin a great childhood now!
just celebrated the 80th birthday
First off, I’m freaky claustrophobic and in the last few days I’ve read headlines about double decker airline seats. Just Reading about this kicked in my phobia big time I’ve experienced first hand anxiety attacks in Business class seats to Europe So I can’t be the only one and airlines may want to research a little more
Nine chronic conditions? Here's your tenth: Pain. Chronic pain affects most of that list of nine to a degree that unless you're actively dealing with pain daily, you're just not going to understand anything about it at all.
Pain wears you down like nothing I've ever seen. It makes you incredibly uncomfortable, sad, and miserable. Every morning is sheer agony for me to just make it out of bed and get to my meds to start the day. Pain level? Nine. No lie. I wouldn't wish this on my worst enemy. That bad.
Why are so many of us suffering from items on this list? Easy. It's cheaper to wear us out, and then pay us a crappy "wage" to sit at home, than to accommodate us on the job to prevent the injuries in the first place. Sad but true. We're just an expendable line item cost to a company.
Must be a tough life. A chronic anything is tough. Not that this applies to you, but I do everything I can to avoid chronic conditions because once you have one it is difficult to kick without another issue cropping up as a side effect.
It is what it is. I just do whatever I can today. Tomorrow I may not be able to.
It just occurred to me that pain is the result of a chronic condition, not in and of itself a chronic condition; Otherwise, the list would be much longer.
Not so. Mine comes from two lower back surgeries that catastrophically failed. The original surgery was ten years old, the second was five. The hardware used in the second surgery, (That I didn't want.) failed under a stress that should not have broken it. The stress followed through the holes drilled to insert the screw and fractured the fusion that had nothing wrong with it. A comedy of errors. Shouldn't have happened. But it did.
Your article about multimorbidity calls another expression into question: That which doesn’t kill me makes me stronger.
I believe the original quote may have been 'that which dost not destroy me makes me stronger, or something like that....I've had a couple or two 'events' which have destroyed me, but I continued with the same strength I had before....I have a feisty friend who says, 'who the hell needs to be That strong!' ;)
"Chinese interpreter?" Say what? Uhh, that is a huge No-no. When you have a Commercial Drivers License you're not supposed to need an interpreter at all. Ever.
Huh? Are you sure? The rules say nothing about communicating through an interpreter.
“The knowledge tests may be administered in written form, verbally, or in automated format and can be administered in a foreign language, provided no interpreter is used in administering the test.”
https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/registration/commercial-drivers-license/ss383133-test-methods-guidance-qa-question-1-may-sign
The knowledge test can be. The ROAD test cannot. You have to understand English to have a CDL in the US. That's what The Great State of Florida told me when CDL's came into existence, (Yes, I am that old, lol.) for me and my guys. And South Carolina said the same back in 2002. I haven't heard of it being changed in either state.
I'm not sure people in cars would be any kind of happy if they knew there was a good chance the driver of the truck or bus in the next lane couldn't read the road signs. Even the guys from India that haul garbage from NJ to PA can do that. They can't do much else, but they can read road signs.
I managed trucking in one form or another for nearly 40 years so I used to be up in things. The article references talking to media through an interpreter, not taking a driving test where one can get by with a more limited vocabulary.
I think he's talking to the court via an interpreter. Even if a person appears to understand well enough, in my experience courts are eager to offer an interpreter - if only to avoid a possible appellate issue later.
“ Better than the alternative “, is it really!!!
I’m in my early 50s diagnosed with Cancer , went through hell with the chemo treatment, and got remission. No they tell me either do a bone marrow transplant with its risks specially with no good match and probably another 6-12 month of hell for a chance to be clear and life to expected age, or do nothing, and cancer will come back more aggressively, in 2 month or in 5 years, but no control after.
I’m in the dilemma 0f choosing pain now and risk, or pain later and risk.
I choose the alternative !
Apologies for the dark reply, but getting old too fast too soon is not fun, living for just living is also not fun. I ask my self why we look for a longer life, when we achieved what we persuaded in life. I fear the next chapter will be pain for me and for the people around me.
The alternative is better, “in some cases”!
Sammy, I'm 94, a survivor of prostate cancer (30 years ago) and have multiple challenges I face every day (at last count, about 40, some mild, others serious), including multiple side unhappy effects of my cancer treatment. It seems to me you are saying you have no reason for staying alive. I respect that. But are you sure the alternative is better? I encourage you to find reasons to live. Family? Children? A career you enjoy? Good friends? Have you bothered to ask others what effect your life has contributed to their happiness? You may be pleasantly surprised. Please give life a chance, even if you hate it. Stop thinking you're living just for living and find out if you're right.
David,
Thank you for the encouraging message and for the hope. For clarification, I don’t hate life, but when I’m no more able to contribute, help others in general, family and friends in particular, live in constant pain, then the alternative becomes acceptable. By no mean, I’ll act on it, our souls were given to us by God, and should only return to him when the time comes. Just came to mind this quote: “ everyone wants to go to heaven, but no one wants to die”.
So, from that perspective, is this, better than the alternative!
Thanks again for the encouragement.
Fascinating research included today, and it particularly resonated with me. My great-grandfather celebrated his 99th birthday in January. He is a prostate cancer survivor and his most pressing ailments at the moment are asthma and a cane he's started using in the past 3 years so. He only turned in his driver's license some 5 years ago.
His six children range in ages from their late 70s to early 60s, and none of them have any chronic illnesses. All still drive and are very independent, with only one of them not having retired yet. It does not escape me that all this would have been a pipe dream 30 years ago, and that none of them would have enjoyed the same fate had they not moved from Ecuador to the US from the 1970s and onward. I'd like to think it's no coincidence that my grandmother is still healthy and active living in the US in her early 70s while my grandfather (her first husband) lived in Ecuador his whole life and died of a very aggressive cancer 16 years ago.
As for my great-grandfather, I'm convinced he'll stubbornly hold off until he becomes a great-great-grandfather. Just for sh*ts and giggles.
Now that I'm 80 and have people ask me how I am, my response is, "Great! I woke up." The warranty has run out and life is still good.
Just a couple of things change as we get older. You no longer have a left or right side. It’s changed to good side and bad side.
When you trip when you are younger your friends laugh at you. As you age they run over and ask if you are alright.
Today's article is why I'm a (free) subscriber. Well, the "free" part is an issue of finances, & yes, the dumb jokes are something I can live with; but anyhow . . . At age 70, taking 7 pills a day, going to specialists every 6 months or so, just now divorced after 33 years of marriage (& a buncha kids all launched out there), losing my balance, arthritic, not driving much because I fall asleep at the wheel . . . You know what? This is a lot better than the alternative. And I, too, laughed the first time I used the phrase, a lot of years ago.
Now, both sides of my family are long-lived -- things can happen, but on average even without modern meds I could expect to live well into my 80s. But at 70 I am in better shape than either of my grandfathers were at the same age. What I see for my future is a semi-retirement, working at things I love while doing other things I love, none of them overwhelming, until the big guy tells me I can't do it anymore. It really doesn't get better than that. My ex-wife, similar family circumstances, has a similar outlook, even though our different views finally led us to break up in order to pursue those separate visions. Even if I live no longer than my grandparents my mobility, my ability to continue doing things I love, is much better than the alternative. And I am very well aware, and very grateful, that I am among the most fortunate.
Bill, this is incredibly timely as I am dealing with my Mom’s issues of falls with a 93-year-old. We are living longer, and for me, that does not sum up necessarily to a good thing. Long and short, if I can be active, travel, be with kids and family and friends, then place me in the forest with a center Starbucks hot chocolate and turn the wolves loose! Longer is not always better!
Still getting a paywall on every article of NYT origin.
You can subscribe to the NYT digital for only $4/month for the first year.
Did I have an NYT link today? I didn't think so.