On Warren's wall

Pretty gruesome, even if it happened long ago.

Warning: Although it happened long ago, today’s newsletter involves the story of someone who died by suicide.

The year was 1901, and something terrible happened. Warren Buffett sure as heck remembers.

He wasn’t born yet (he’s old, but not that old), but we know that he knows because it was memorialized in a front-page New York Times article on May 10 of that year, which Buffett later framed and kept prominently on the wall in his office in Omaha.

The story from that very old Times is gruesome, although the bigger lesson is worth knowing.

DIES IN VAT OF HOT BEER

TROY, N.Y., May 9 — The body of Samuel Bolton Jr., a prominent brewer and businessman of this city, was found today in a vat of hot beer. Mr. Bolton had but a short time before returned from a pleasure drive, and chatted pleasantly with friends. About noon, his hat was seen beside the vat of boiling beer and an investigation brought to light his body in the steaming liquid.

Doctors were called, who gave their belief that death was instantaneous.

Besides Mr. Bolton’s hat, his coat and watch were found near the vat, and the general belief is that it was a case of suicide.

It is said that Mr. Bolton had lost heavily in stocks lately.

Is Buffett simply so macabre that he liked to be reminded of this terrible story? And how did he even hear about it for that matter? Remember, it’s 123 years old.

It’s explained by the story that ran next to the story about Bolton in that ancient edition of the Times. It’s not clear that the writers at the time even recognized the connection, but in retrospect it’s clear. This second one was headlined:

NORTHERN PACIFIC CORNER EXPOSED: The Secret of Stock Buying for Morgan Interests

Let’s let Buffett himself pick up the story, as he did during a Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting:

In 1962, when I set up our office … I put seven items on the wall [including] photocopies of … [newspaper] pages from financial history.

One of those cases was in May of 1901 when the Northern Pacific corner occurred.

Buffett went on to explain that this was a financial catastrophe that came about when two massively wealthy railroad tycoons each tried to buy enough stock to take control of a railway known as the Northern Pacific.

Their combined efforts caused unintended chaos across the entire stock market. Many less-sophisticated investors lost everything.

One of those victims was Bolton, who had watched the market and initially reacted logically, not realizing that an entirely illogical thing was happening behind the scenes.

Apparently he had shorted Northern Pacific’s stock, basically, made a financial bet that the price would go down, without understanding that the two railroad barons’ actions were secretly manipulating the price to make sure it kept going up.

“That fellow probably understood,” Buffett said, “how impossible it was that in one day a stock could go from $170 to $1,000 to cause margin calls on everything. And yet he ended up in the vat of hot beer. I’ve never wanted to end up in a vat of hot beer.”

In case that metaphor both illuminates and obscures the point at the same time, let’s summarize the lessons for Buffett:

It served as a reminder that the only thing anyone can be sure of is that highly unpredictable things will happen.

And, it’s a reminder that sometimes big guys get together and wreak havoc — without even noticing how it affects little guys.

This is a quirky story as much as a morbid one.

I suppose there’s a part of me that appreciates the idea that Samuel Bolton Jr. died such an undignified death under such difficult circumstances—and yet, if not for that moment, neither Buffett nor you nor I would ever have heard his name.

But while Buffett is into investing, and you might be into something else, there’s a lesson even in how Buffett memorializes his lessons. I’ll bet there are similar key lessons in your world.

Track them down, find mementos, and do whatever it is that you have to do to remember.

Nobody wants to end up in a vat of hot beer.

Here’s Buffett explaining the story of Northern Pacific and Bolton:

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7 other things worth knowing today

• More than 3/4 of Americans who watched President Trump's speech Tuesday approved of it, according to a poll. Caveat: We don't know if this means it was polarizing or popular, because we don’t yet know how many people watched, or the degree to which the audience skewed toward supporters. Still, 76% is a very big number. (The Hill)

• China warned Tuesday that it stands ready for any "type of war" with the U.S., after criticizing Trump's tariffs against the company: "[I]f war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end," said a government spokesperson. Also in "tariffs today," Trump met with the heads of GM, Ford, and Stellantis, and afterward announced a 1-month delay for tariffs on cars coming from Canada and Mexico automakers. (ABC News; CNBC)

• Want to meet 1-on-1 with Trump at Mar-a-Largo? A report in Wired says the going rate business leaders are paying is $5 million for private meetings. If that’s too much, attendees paid $1 million per person to attend a “candlelit dinner” as part of a larger group this past weekend. (Wired; backup)

• The Supreme Court on Wednesday narrowly backed a federal judge's power to order the Trump administration to pay $2 billion to U.S. Agency for International Development contractors. However, the 5-4 vote left significant doubt that the court would act similarly on bigger spending cases; a key point here was that the contractors had already done the work that the U.S. was refusing to pay for. (NBC News)

• U.S. Marshals have warned federal judges of unusually high threat levels as tech billionaire Elon Musk and other Trump administration allies ramp up efforts to discredit judges who stand in the way of White House efforts to slash federal jobs and programs. (Reuters)

• The U.S. Veterans Affairs Department will lay off about 1/5 of its workforce, numbering 83,000 employees, later this year, according to an internal memorandum distributed to top staff. This would return it to 2019 levels that were in place before millions of veterans became newly eligible for care. (GovExec)

• Andrew and Tristan Tate, two brothers charged with human trafficking in Romania, are under criminal investigation in Florida. The online influencers landed in Fort Lauderdale on Thursday after they were permitted to leave Romania despite the fact that they are awaiting trial there. “Florida has zero tolerance for people who abuse women and girls. We will not allow it,” state Attorney General James Uthmeier said Tuesday. (The Washington Post)

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Thanks for reading. Photo by Kenny Eliason on Unsplash. I wrote about some of this before at Inc.com. See you in the comments!