Are you having a hard time making a a big decision?
Good news: There’s a simple question you can ask yourself that can guide you through indecision, overcome analysis paralysis, and ultimately help you make better, bolder choices.
The question is simply, “What is the worst that could happen?”
And while some of us probably ask ourselves this question when facing tough choices, that’s not quite enough. Instead, it’s a matter of understanding the emotional and mental processes that lead to indecision, and why focusing on this question works.
To explore the concept, I sat down a while back with Denise K. Shull, a top performance coach with a graduate degree in neuropsychoanalysis from the University of Chicago. Shull has worked with top performers from traders managing multibillion dollar portfolios, and elite professional athletes competing in Major League Baseball, the NFL, and the Olympics.
The theory behind why this question works so well in a structured context, she explained, is that human emotions are predictive, not reactive:
“Our brains are always trying to predict what’s going to happen next. Take, for example, picking up a cup of coffee. If you’re not sure whether it’s hot or cold, it takes a moment for your brain to process the temperature.
But if you know it’s a hot cup of coffee, you instantly feel the heat.
…
It’s not just the prediction of the thing itself, but the prediction of how that thing will make us feel. …
Confidence is essentially a prediction that whatever we’re doing is going to work out, while fear is the belief that it won’t. When you analyze people’s behavior and decision-making in terms of these predictions, you open up a broader understanding of their actions and motivations.”
I should point out here that Shull cited the work of Brian Knutson, a professor of psychology and neuroscience at Stanford University who is the director of Stanford’s Symbiotic Project on Affective Neuroscience.
“Twenty years ago, when I first started in this field, I knew about the importance of emotions in decision-making,” she said. But it was only when I discovered Knutson’s work on anticipatory emotions that everything clicked into place.“
Anyway, let’s see how it works in practice. I asked Shull to share with me the experiences of clients whom she had guided through decision-making processes. Obviously we can’t name them specifically, but I hope the descriptions will suffice.
“My boss might think I’m stupid”
An HR director at a major financial firm wanted to ask for a promotion. He believed he could do the job and that he’d learn whatever he needed to fill in the gaps. But he had a hard time bringing himself to ask for it.
What was the worst that could happen? He eventually realized he was concerned that his boss didn’t think enough of him, grow angry at him, or think he was “stupid.”
Result: He realized that the more likely outcome was that his boss might actually want him to step up, and would likely be supportive. And even if this were wrong, how did fear of his boss compare to believing in himself?
“It might not work and I’ll embarrass myself”
A Major League Baseball pitcher talked with Shull about his inability to commit to learning a new pitch that might improve his game.
What was the worst that could happen? He realized his fear was that he might not learn it or be good at it, and that he’d embarrass himself if he tried throwing it in a game.
Result: He reminded himself that he didn’t actually have to try the new pitch in a game until he developed confidence in his ability to throw it. The upside was that if he DID develop confidence, it would add confusion for the batters he faced.
“My coach will be angry”
An Olympic snowboarder wanted to sit out a pre-Olympic competition, but was afraid to tell the coach.
What was the worst that could happen? The snowboarder realized that it was fear of the coach simply being angry.
Result: The snowboarder determined that the coach would get over it, and that the upside was the extra rest and lack of risk of injury before the biggest race of all was worth it.
“I’ll be upset that I didn’t believe in myself”
A portfolio manager at one of the world’s biggest hedge funds was down on the year, and holding back on a huge trade they wanted to make in December.
What was the worst that could happen? He could wind up down even further if the trade didn’t work out. But, there was also the other side: What was the worst that could happen if he didn’t make the trade, and it turned out to have been a good one?
Result: “I will be SO much more mad at myself, and feel SO much more like an idiot if I don’t listen to my conviction and it ends up working out – than I will be if I am wrong.”
Downplay the anticipated emotion
Look, I’m like the shoemaker whose kids are barefoot when it comes to telling other people to get over their anxiety and be more decisive.
But that’s also probably why I’m so open to these kinds of ideas, and so eager to seek out coaches and other professionals who can help work through it.
In short, when you’re faced with indecision, ask yourself what’s the worst that can happen. Then, look for the indications that (perhaps) it’s not your fear of the outcome that stops you from acting, but instead, your fear of how you might feel, if that worst-case scenario comes to fruition.
If you sort of inoculate yourself against that anticipated emotion, you might just be able to make the decision.
Give it a try? Why not? What’s the worst that could … well, you get the idea.
Other things worth knowing …
CNN: The U.S. and Iran are closing in on a memorandum of understanding that would open a 60-day negotiating window — during which the Strait of Hormuz would reopen while both sides work out final terms on sanctions and Iran’s nuclear program.
Bloomberg: As Americans confront a surge in prices at the pump, another inflation wave is headed for the grocery store. "It's going to be a challenging year," said Ricky Volpe, an agribusiness professor at California Polytechnic State University who previously worked at the USDA's Economic Research Service. "Food is going to become less affordable, and consumers should be prepared for it."
Mediaite: Secretary of Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin said his department is "drawing up" plans to prevent inbound international flights from landing in what he called "sanctuary cities," especially Newark, New Jersey, because of ongoing protests at Delaney Hall, a detention facility holding up to 1,000 immigrants. He said local law enforcement is not assisting federal agents there.
NASA: NASA awarded nearly $1 billion in contracts Tuesday to Blue Origin, Astrolab, Lunar Outpost, and Firefly Aerospace to build rovers, landers, and drones for the first phase of a permanent moon base near the lunar south pole. "The Moon Base will be America's and humanity's first outpost on another celestial world," said Administrator Jared Isaacman.
CNBC: Two police officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on January 6 sued to block the Trump administration's $1.776 billion "Anti-Weaponization Fund," calling it "potentially the most corrupt act of presidential power in American history."
WUSA9: A wave of '90s nostalgia is headed for the National Mall this summer as part of a 16-day celebration marking America's 250th birthday. One of the highlights is a June 26 lineup billed as "I Love the '90s," featuring C+C Music Factory, Vanilla Ice, Milli Vanilli, and Young MC.
The Telegraph: Restaurants and hotels in Italy have no obligation to serve customers tap water instead of bottled water, Italy's highest court has ruled. The decision came after a long-running legal saga that began in 2019, when a tourist asked for tap water during a stay at a five-star hotel in the Dolomites but was told she had to buy a bottle of mineral water costing €7.
Thanks for reading. I wrote about some of this at Inc.com. See you in the comments.