Who wants this job, and why?

It's a lot more dangerous than anyone mentions.

Hi. I’m back after vacation and Low Power Mode! Thanks for sticking around. For the rest of this week, we’re here today on Understandably, then over to Big Optimism tomorrow, and back to Understandably for Friday.

As of today, 45 people have been president. (We're on #46 but that's only because we count Grover Cleveland twice.)

Of those 45, four were struck down by assassins’ bullets:

• Abraham Lincoln, killed by John Wilkes Booth, 1865

• James Garfield, killed by Charles J. Guiteau, 1881

• William McKinley, killed by Leon Czolgosz, 1901

• John F. Kennedy, killed by Lee Harvey Oswald, 1963

So, at the outset, this is a job in which statistically you have an 8.9% chance of being shot to death.

But wait, there's more. Four other presidents also died while in office, but not because of gunshots.

• William Henry Harrison (1841), who was basically killed by his butchers doctors when they tried to treat him for pneumonia.

• Franklin Delano Roosevelt (1945) was in such bad health that he likely would have died soon after, whether he was president or not.

• Zachary Taylor (1850) officially died of natural causes, but skeptics claim[ed] that he might have been poisoned by pro-slavery conspirators.

• Warren G. Harding (1923) also officially died of natural causes, but skeptics claim[ed] that he might have been poisoned by his wife, after she learned the extent to which he had cheated on her.

History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes, right? Anyway, regardless of cause, we're up to almost an 18% death rate for sitting presidents.

There's still more. At least 13 other presidents faced serious, legitimate assassination attempts while in office: Andrew Jackson, William Taft, Herbert Hoover, Harry Truman, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden.

On top of that, Lincoln, Kennedy, and FDR were all targeted in previous assassination attempts.

And on top of that, of course, both Teddy Roosevelt and Trump were targeted after they were out of office. In both cases, they were shot-by would-be assassins while giving speeches during campaigns for reelection to non-consecutive terms.

Obviously, some of the unsuccessful attempts on presidents represented more imminent danger than others.

• More serious attempts include, for example:

  • John Hinkley Jr. managing to shoot and wound President Reagan;

  • the attempt on President Truman that resulted in the death of a police officer;

  • the attempt on former President Trump that resulted in the death of an audience member.

• Still serious but ultimately less-effective attempts include:

  • the two women in separate incidents, both in September 1975, who tried to shoot President Ford;

  • the 1994 attempt on President Clinton when a man opened fire on the White House with a knockoff AK-47, having mistaken a man walking on the lawn for the president;

  • the man in Geogia (the country) who threw a live grenade at President George W. Bush during a speech (it didn't go off because it was wrapped tightly in a handkerchief), or

  • the would-be assassins who tried to kill President Obama between 2012 and 2013 by sending ricin and pipe bombs to the White House.

Honestly, writing today's newsletter was wild because of the sheer number of attempts on the lives of the presidents I came across, especially during the past 30 years or so—many of which I never knew about or had completely forgotten.

Heck, the attempt on former President Trump was less than two months ago, and it's already been almost completely memory-holed.

Anyway, add all of that up, and you have 22 out of 45 presidents who either died in office or were the targets of confirmed, serious assassination attempts while running. That's a 48.8% "died or tried to kill them" rate.

Oh, and there's Nixon, who resigned (although honestly, by today's much lower standards, he probably wouldn't have had to).

So overall, even if you win, you have a less than 50% chance of living through it without being the victim of a serious assassination attempt or having to leave office in disgrace, before the term is over.

By way of comparison, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says these are the five most dangerous jobs in America:

• 1. Logging Workers. .00082% annual death rate.

• 2. Fishing and Hunting Workers. .00075% death rate.

• 3. Roofers. .00059% death rate.

• 4. Aircraft Pilots and Flight Engineers. .00048% death rate.

• 5. Structural Iron and Steel Workers. .00036% death rate.

Tell me again: Why does anybody want to be president, and why?

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7 other things …

• Someone could write a newsletter focusing only on crazy theories powerful people share on social media. But still: Elon Musk used X/Twitter over the weekend to promote the idea that a "Republic of only high status males" would be best, because "women and low-T [testosterone] men" are unable to think for themselves. I can't find any big U.S. news organizations bothering to report this, by the way. (The Independent; Musk’s tweet)

• Russian President Vladimir Putin received a red carpet welcome on Tuesday on a state visit to Mongolia, whose failure to arrest him under a warrant from the International Criminal Court was criticised by Ukraine as a blow against justice. (Reuters)

• Obviously, I can't catch up on all the news about Gaza in one link, so we'll just start somewhere: The Justice Department announced criminal charges Tuesday against Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and other senior militants in connection with the Oct. 7, 2023, rampage in Israel, marking the first effort by American law enforcement to formally call out the masterminds of the attack. (AP)

• As a former Army JAG, I have to include this: By day, Jack Rozema an Army captain with the Judge Advocate General’s Corp. He’s also, as of this last month, one of the top CrossFit athletes in the world. So yes, an administrative law attorney with the U.S. Army Recruiting Command is incredibly fit and likely can hoist you overhead and then run sprints and do burpees after doing so. Not exactly the normal idea of a lawyer. (Task & Purpose)

• Difficult conversations with parents are rite of passage for childhood, whether it’s about friendship, grades, mental health, or romance. However, a new Gallup poll shows that while at least 80% of Gen Z says these conversations are helpful, their parents are shying away from having them. (Fast Company)

• How do you get a grumpy 4-ton elephant to a new home 120 miles away? Call the elephant movers. (AP)

• Cable TV's collapse deepens: 'It is becoming increasingly clear that there is no longer any floor.' (Business Insider)

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Thanks for reading. Photo by Pascal Bernardon on Unsplash. See you in the comments.